As nations develop (when citizens earn an average of over $5,000 a year) birth rates fall below replacement rate. Fertility rates are falling much faster than dominant social narratives imply. For example, at its current fertility rate (0.78), for every hundred South Koreans there will be 5.9 great grandchildren (the average fertility rate in the developed world is currently 1.56). In addition, the regions we use to supplement collapsing birth rates in countries like the US are themselves undergoing fertility collapse (with South America, Central America, and the Caribbean collectively falling below repopulation rate in 2019).

This matters for two reasons: (1) When countries have more residents who are net tax drains than net tax contributors (what we call a dependency ratio cascade) they’ll no longer be able to sustain social services that support society’s most vulnerable members and millions will suffer, and (2) We run the risk of a cultural mass extinction, losing low-fertility cultures, including South Koreans, Emiratis, Jains, Native Americans, and many more.