Policy that effectively addresses demographic collapse must do two things: (1) Stabilize or increase birth rates while (2) Stabilize or reduce government spending to make up for lower proportions of contributing taxpayers.

Simply throwing money at falling birth rates is not only largely ineffective (consider Hungary’s lackluster results despite spending 5-6% of its GDP attempting to increase birth rates, a percentage roughly equivalent to US defense spending) but also accelerates progress toward dependency ratio cascades—the point at which countries lose their ability to effectively finance crucial social programs.

With culture being the largest factor influencing fertility, simple, lightweight policy interventions granting greater freedom to high-fertility groups (e.g. through school choice) and taking pressure off families (e.g., through removing the tax penalty that hits middle-class couples who marry and reducing daycare regulation) should take the spotlight.

Whether or not you consider yourself a pronatalist, you likely care about functioning infrastructure, police forces, social security, and other essential social safety nets for the most vulnerable people in society.

In order to keep these programs going, we must address the looming threat of demographic-collapse-driven dependency ratio cascades. We welcome collaboration, discourse, and ideas. Don’t hesitate to reach out!